CURRENT AFFAIRS | 14 APRIL 2026
CLAT GK + ENVIRONMENT & CLIMATE SCIENCE
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Monday that India is expected to receive “below-normal” monsoon rainfall in 2026, with the first-stage Long Range Forecast (LRF) pegging rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of +/-5%. The primary driver is the expected development of an El Nino during the peak monsoon months of July-August, which historically suppresses the Indian monsoon. IMD Director Mritunjay Mohapatra made the announcement, triggering concern across India’s agricultural and economic landscape.
Understanding El Nino and ENSO
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate phenomenon involving periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. During El Nino events, the Walker Circulation weakens, reducing moisture-laden winds that drive the Indian southwest monsoon. The Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggests El Nino conditions will develop during the June-September monsoon season, gaining strength in July, the peak monsoon month.
Currently, weak La Nina-like conditions are transitioning to ENSO-neutral, but atmospheric patterns still reflect residual La Nina characteristics. The 2023 monsoon, also an El Nino year, received 94% of LPA, while 2024 saw a recovery with 106% of LPA under La Nina conditions.
Agricultural and Economic Impact
India receives over 70% of its annual rainfall during the June-September southwest monsoon. Agriculture, which employs nearly half the workforce, remains critically dependent on monsoon rainfall, particularly in rain-fed regions that lack irrigation infrastructure. The Kharif cropping season (paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton) is most vulnerable.
The second half of the monsoon (August-September) is expected to bear the brunt of El Nino’s suppressive effect. This means the monsoon may arrive on time and appear normal in June but weaken progressively through July-September, precisely when standing Kharif crops are at their most water-intensive growth stage.
Beyond agriculture, a weak monsoon affects hydroelectric generation (which accounts for approximately 12% of India’s power generation), groundwater recharge, reservoir levels, and urban water supply. It also impacts food inflation, as reduced agricultural output pushes up prices of cereals, pulses, and vegetables.
Government Preparedness
The early forecast allows central and state governments to prepare contingency measures: building buffer food stocks, activating the National Disaster Management framework, planning for crop insurance payouts under Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana, and managing water allocation from existing reservoirs. ISRO’s satellite-based monitoring provides real-time monsoon tracking to supplement IMD’s ground observations.
Constitutional & Legal Framework
- Article 48A (DPSP) — State shall protect and improve the environment and safeguard forests and wildlife
- Article 47 (DPSP) — State shall raise the level of nutrition and standard of living and improve public health
- Article 21 — Right to life interpreted to include right to clean water (Subhash Kumar v State of Bihar, 1991)
- National Water Policy 2012 — Framework for water resource planning, development, and management
- Disaster Management Act 2005 — Establishes NDMA, SDMAs; framework for disaster preparedness and response
- National Food Security Act 2013 — Ensures access to adequate food at affordable prices for priority households
- Paris Agreement — India’s climate commitments and adaptation framework
CLAT Angle: Why This Matters
- CLAT GK Favourite — El Nino/La Nina, ENSO, IMD forecasting are frequently tested climate topics
- Constitutional Provisions — Art. 48A, 47, 21 and environmental jurisprudence
- Food Security — National Food Security Act 2013, PDS, buffer stock management
- Disaster Management — NDMA framework, DM Act 2005 provisions
- Economic Impact — Agricultural GDP contribution, food inflation, rural economy
- International Framework — Paris Agreement, climate adaptation, ISRO’s role
Key Facts at a Glance
| IMD Forecast | 92% of LPA (below normal) |
| LPA Rainfall | ~868.6 mm (1971-2020 average) |
| Primary Driver | Developing El Nino in equatorial Pacific |
| 2023 (El Nino year) | 94% of LPA |
| 2024 (La Nina year) | 106% of LPA |
| Monsoon Season | June-September (70%+ annual rainfall) |
| IMD Director | Mritunjay Mohapatra |
Mnemonic: MONSOON
M — Mritunjay Mohapatra (IMD Director) announced forecast
O — Only 92% of LPA expected (below normal)
N — Ninety-four percent was 2023 El Nino year rainfall
S — Subhash Kumar case: Art. 21 includes right to water
O — Over 70% of annual rain falls in June-September
O — Ocean warming (El Nino) in eastern Pacific suppresses monsoon
N — NFSA 2013 + NDMA Act 2005 protect food and disaster response
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