CURRENT AFFAIRS | 1 MAY 2026
CLAT GK + Environment / Economy
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its first long-range forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon (issued 13 April 2026), has projected rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ±5% — placing the season firmly in the “below normal” bracket. This is India’s first below-normal April forecast in three years.
The forecast cites three converging signals: (i) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions developing in the equatorial Pacific, with current weak La Niña transitioning to ENSO-neutral and a likely warm El Niño emerging through the season; (ii) the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remaining neutral; and (iii) below-normal Eurasian snow cover in January-March 2026 — historically a precursor to weak Indian monsoons.
The Forecast in Numbers
IMD’s probability assessment: 35% chance of deficient (<90% LPA) — almost double the historical average of 16%; 31% chance of below normal (90–95%); 27% normal (96–104%); only 7% above-normal or excess. The Indian Express editorial (“Likely below-normal monsoon is a warning”) flags risks for kharif sowing, food inflation, hydropower and reservoir levels.
Constitutional & Legal Framework
- Article 48A (DPSP) — State shall endeavour to protect and improve the environment and safeguard forests and wildlife.
- Article 51A(g) — Fundamental Duty of every citizen to protect the environment including rivers, lakes, forests, wildlife.
- Article 21 — Supreme Court has consistently read the right to a wholesome environment and clean drinking water into “right to life” (Subhash Kumar v State of Bihar (1991); Virender Gaur (1995)).
- Environment (Protection) Act, 1986; Air Act, 1981; Water Act, 1974 — statutory backbone.
- Jal Jeevan Mission (2019) — Har Ghar Jal; Atal Bhujal Yojana (2019) — groundwater recharge in 7 states; National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA).
Why This Matters
The monsoon waters about 60% of Indian agriculture and feeds the kharif crop. A below-normal season raises risks for: (a) food inflation via pulses, oilseeds, vegetables; (b) rural demand through farm incomes; (c) hydropower generation; (d) reservoir storage for the rabi season; (e) drinking-water stress in central India and the Deccan. The RBI tracks monsoon for inflation forecasting; the Centre may tighten foodgrain export controls and accelerate buffer-stock purchases.
CLAT 2027 — Why You Must Know This
This is core Environment + Economy material. Memorise: 92% LPA, ±5% error, IMD 5-category scale, ENSO, IOD, Eurasian snow cover. Constitutional anchors: Article 48A, 51A(g), 21. Tie to Jal Jeevan Mission and food inflation. Expect a passage on Article 21 + right to water + monsoon-driven drinking-water stress.
Key Facts at a Glance
| FORECAST ISSUED | 13 April 2026 (first long-range) |
| FORECAST | 92% of LPA (±5%) — Below Normal |
| LPA (1971–2020) | ~868 mm |
| DEFICIENT PROBABILITY | 35% (vs 16% historical) |
| DRIVERS | Emerging El Niño · Neutral IOD · Low Eurasian snow |
| AT-RISK CROPS | Kharif rice, pulses (tur/urad), oilseeds, cotton |
| CONSTITUTION | Articles 48A · 51A(g) · 21 |
Mnemonic
“E-I-S” for the three monsoon predictors = El Niño (Pacific) · IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) · Snow cover (Eurasia). All three negative ⇒ weak monsoon.
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Source: Down To Earth / IMD / Indian Express editorial, 13–30 April 2026.
